Nikolay Davydenko – Juan Martin Del Potro ATP Final Match Analysis
Nikolay Davydenko won his first ATP Finals Championship by beating Juan Martin Del Potro 6-3, 6-4. Davydenko was clearly the more aggressive player and possibly even fresher than Del Potro.
Nikolay Davydenko wins his first ATP Finals Championship (Photo by Christopher Lee/Getty Images for Barclays ATP Finals)
I’ve analyzed the match with my usual modified aggressive margin system and the system clearly shows what was going on during the match.
| Juan Martin Del Potro | Nikolay Davydenko | |||
| Score | UE | WF | UE | WF |
| 0-0′ | B,B | S,F | ||
| 0′-1 | B | S,S,S,S | Bv | |
| 1-1′ | F | S,S,F | ||
| 1′-2 | F,B | S,S,S,F | B,Fv,F,Fr | |
| 1-3′ | F,F | B | S,S | |
| 1′-4 | B | F,SM | F,Bv | |
| 2-4′ | B | Br | B,S,F | S,S,F,F,F |
| 2′-5 | F | S,S,F,Bv | Fr | B,B |
| 3-5′ | S,F,S,B | |||
| Aggressive Margin | 16–11=+5 | 23-6=+17 | ||
Here are some of the key points of the first set:
1. Davydenko started extremely focused as he didn’t commit an unforced error until the 6th game and still managed to hit 7 winners from the baseline in that period of time.
2. Del Potro on the other hand saved himself twice mostly with first serve winners as 7 of the 8 points needed to win his first two service games came from his service winners. Had Del Potro not served that well, the first set would be over in 20 minutes for Davydenko.
3. Davydenko had one lapse of concentration at 4-2 up where he committed 2 unforced errors and a double fault but stayed aggressive and saved the game with 2 service and 3 forehand winners.
4. Davydenko in the end made 23 points through winners and forcing shots and gave only 6 points to Del Potro through unforced errors. That’s a +17 margin. Del Potro’s first set margin was +5.
5. The stats on the also showed that Davydenko played 40% of the shots inside the baseline in the first set and Del Potro only 20%.
Second set
| Juan Martin Del Potro | Nikolay Davydenko | |||
| Score | UE | WF | UE | WF |
| 0′-0 | B | F,S,Fv | F | B |
| 1-0′ | F,F | Bv,S,S,S | ||
| 1′-1 | F,S | B,Br | ||
| 2-1′ | B | F,S,S | ||
| 2′-2 | F,F | F,S,S,F,B | Br | Fv,F |
| 3-2′ | Br,F | F,B,F,B | Bv,S,Fv,F | |
| 3′-3 | S,B,F,S | |||
| 4-3′ | F,Fr,B | S | S | |
| 4′-4 | B,F,F,F | |||
| 4-5′ | B | F | S,S,SM | |
| Aggressive Margin | 17–19=+7 | 22-9=+13 | ||
1. Del Potro started the second set more aggressively and more focused as he made 7 winners and only 1 unforced error in the first three games but Nikolay was strong enough to hold his serve.
2. Davydenko’s level of play dropped just once in the second set at 2-3 when he made 4 unforced errors but Del Potro was just not aggressive enough since the stats show that Davydenko also made 4 winners / forcing shots in that same game.
3. Davydenko played a perfect game at 4-4 where he broke Del Potro’s serve on 0 by hitting 3 forehand and 1 backhand winner. There were no unforced errors from Del Potro but Juan Martin definitely played too slow and allowed Davydenko to dominate the rallies.
4. Davydenko’s margin in the second set was +13 and Del Potro’s +7. This tells us that Del Potro still played reasonably well as he made more winners than unforced errors but his game was slightly too passive and that allowed Davydenko to control the rallies.
In summary, this was one the best tennis performances by Davydenko that I have ever seen him play and he really deserved to win the tournament.
Juan Martin Del Potro was in my opinion just “flat” after a tiring semi-final match with Soderling and was just unable to produce the same high level play so quickly after that match.
Your thoughts are of course very welcome!
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December 3rd, 2009 at 2:59 am
I saw Nikolay Davydenko play at the O2 Arena last week, and I must say that he really deserved his title. The match I saw was against Novac Djokovic, and although he lost that match, he put in a masterful display.
He also thoroughly deserved to beat Federer for the first time in 13 matches, and I guess that spurred him on with all the self belief that he could win the title.
Let’s not forget he was a beaten finalist in the same event last year. He is the sort of player that ‘goes under the radar’ in the tournaments. I think the tennis world will certainly be watching out for him with interest next season.
Leo
December 5th, 2009 at 12:19 am
I really like that agressive margin chart. It proves what I was sensing while watching Davy’s play which is naturally very defensive – but he can turn the tables and become agressive instantly. great post.
December 5th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Davydenko played great tennis and deserved the title. He was the most consistent performer throughout the tournament. Everyone else seemed to have ups and downs and some, like Djokovic, just seemed burned out and ready for the off season. That said, I think the final could have gone the other way if Del Potro could have summoned the intensity we’ve seen from him in previous tournaments. He came out flat and just never could get it going. Even with Davydenko’s high level of play and extremely low error rate, Del Potro should have been able to overpower him. But not on that day. He just didn’t seem to have the will. He really let Davydenko dictate play and Juan Martin is not at his best when doing so much defending.
December 14th, 2009 at 7:57 am
Davydenko played extremely focused – main key point.