Rafael Nadal – Tomas Berdych Wimbledon 2010 Final Analysis
Rafael Nadal won his second Wimbledon title against Tomas Berdych today and his 8th Grand Slam title.
Rafael Nadal beats Tomas Berdych for the Wimbledon 2010 title / Photo by ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP/Getty Images
I watched the whole match and here are some of my thoughts that I wrote down during the match…
I knew that Nadal would play solid tennis at the start of the match. So my focus was on Berdych as I was looking to see any signs of pressure.
I was looking at the rhythm of shots from the baseline, how clean was Berdych hitting the ball and whether he’d go for the shots when he had an opening and whether he would be successful.
Berdych was doing well at the start of the match as I didn’t see any signs of nervousness. Grand Slams finals can sometimes start really bad for the player who is in his first final and meets an experienced opponent with a few Grand Slams under his belt.
But at 3:3 the problems for Berdych started to mount. He hit one shot with the frame – possibly because of a bad bounce, made one unforced error and Nadal hit a down-the-line passing shot – and Berdych was 0:40 down.
Nadal of course knows exactly when to attack the ball with courage and hit a winning backhand return at 15:40. That’s what makes Nadal right now the undisputed #1 tennis player in the world.
He NEVER even attempted a winning backhand return in the previous 3 games when Berdych served and yet he went for the shot on the first break point opportunity he had!
His mindset at that point is NEVER the worry of missing the shot. His mindset is always about taking the chance that he has.
His is looking to succeed and hits the ball with no doubt or hesitation. And once you approach your shots with such positive mental state, you’ll make them in most of the cases.
Nadal then switched into another gear in his next service game and in the next return game. His forehands were even more aggressive and more accurate and Berdych found himself in defense most of the time.
And even when Tomas was able to control a rally he committed an unforced error too often which meant that his mental state was not as calm as at the beginning of the match. This resulted in another break and Nadal closed the first set 6-3.
What’s really interesting is that Nadal had a rare letdown at the start of the second set. He made two unforced and for him unusal forehand errors and that gave Berdych a break point. Nadal countered it with a good serve and a forehand.
The letdown effects were still there as Nadal committed only his second double fault. Nadal had to serve a second serve on the break point but his classic lefty serve was too much for Berdych.
I think that Berdych did not adjust to the extra curve and slice that Nadal (or any other left-hander) can hit on the serve out wide.
His returning position was the same as if he was returning agaist a right-hander and that’s just too far from the ball which a left-hander can serve out-wide.
It could prove to be the key tactical mistake that would determine the winner of the match.
Nadal was still not playing well (still not reaching maximum concentration) and was fluctuating between good points and poor serves and double faults.
What’s really worrying – if you’re a Berdych fan – is that Nadal still won that game. ;(
Both players held serves until 5:5. At 5:5 on Nadal’s serve Berdych looked to attack much more with his forehand and was looking to break. Unforced error on the second point was probably the key to losing that game so Nadal managed to hold and went 6-5 ahead.
Tomas was definitely feeling pressure when serving at 5-6 as he made 3 unforced errors with his forehand missing by just a little. It’s exactly the difference between winners and losers.
Winners either do not experience pressure at key points and are able to play at the same high level as before or they learn to play under pressure and do not attempt risky shots and play a more high percentage tennis.
Tomas Berdych has not adapted his game to the pressure he felt at 5-6 and in fact went for his shots even more than usual.
That suggests that he was looking to get out of the pressure as soon as possible – because the pressure is of course uncomfortable and our mind suggests us ideas (shots, tactics) that would shorten the point.
The reason why Nadal is such a tough player is because he has such high margin of error (playing high above the net and away from the lines) and yet incredibly fast ball which puts his opponents in time deficit.
In other words, Nadal risks very little when he attacks while Berdych and in fact every other player on the tour has to risk much more to put the opponent in trouble.
This difference in risks eventually turns the match in Nadal’s favor.
Third set went with serve and then Nadal managed to get to 0:30 on Berdych serve at 5-4. Berdych fought well (thanks to big serves) to get to deuce but another unforced error with the forehand and another great forehand pass by Nadal and it was all over.
Rafael Nadal is at the moment the lone warrior at the top of the tennis world and no one has been able to challenge him in the last few months.
Tomas Berdych has in my opinion done the same mistake as Robin Soderling at Roland Garros – he tried to beat Nadal with smart tactical tennis. He wasn’t really letting go and attacking with abandon.
But in my opinion Berdych can play 100 matches with Nadal in the same way and he’ll never win one if Nadal is in the form that he has been showing in the last 2 months.
The only way to beat Nadal would be for Berdych to blast every forehand close to the lines and hope that this is the day where most of the shots go in.
The lure of the Grand Slam title is obviously too tempting to go that way and Berdych and Soderling both preferred to protect their egos from making “stupid” mistakes in the final of the Grand Slam and thus they chose to play smart tactical and controlled tennis.
Of course they have zero chance of beating Nadal in the final of a Grand Slam with that approach.
Hope someone wakes up and challenges Rafa so that we can eventually see an exciting Grand Slam final…
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July 6th, 2010 at 10:58 am
Agreed.
My overall thought is, that, in general, Berdych did not serve as well as in earlier matches. Thomas let that get to him.
Nadal, also did not serve as well as in earlier matches, but that didn’t seem to affect his ground strokes.
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July 6th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
Very good analysis and exactly my thoughts. The thing that allows Nadal to not feel the pressure so much is his style of tennis, which is basically error-proof. The topspin helps the balls to go way over the net and land inside most of the times. I think that’s why Nadal can keep his cool and play aggressively: he knows he will not make many unforced errors.
I saw Thomas was tight and was sorry he couldn’t let go and play with abandon. I don’t blame him, it was his first GS final. But I don’t know if he will ever be relaxed enough to win when he plays Nadal. His game, and Soderling’s, is most efficient when it’s free. That’s the problem. They cannot win when they play safe, high procentage, because this will mean longer rallies and Nadal will always win in rallies.
The only effective way to win comfortably against Nadal is to play the way Tsonga played him at AO 2008. Attacking tennis, big serve, coming to the net, finishing quickly with a volley. Of course, Tsonga was inspired that day, but Nadal’s style didn’t have any answers to this kind of tennis. Problem is, not many players can serve and volley that well nowadays:)
But seriously, I don’t see any baseline player winning against Nadal, unless they are completely relaxed for the entire match, which I don’t think will ever happen in an important match. I think Nadal has pretty much discovered the perfect tennis style: aggressive, and yet safe.
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July 6th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
The interesting thing is that some much of the play has to do with movement. Nadal moves so much better than everyone else on grass. The only one who comes close is Federer. So once the point starts Nadal knows that the other person will not be able to stay in the point. His most impressive win was against Murray where he had to work harder to hold his serve. Eventually, Murray broke down and lost points. Is this confidence or simply the accumulation of small differences in movement and positioning that eventually add up? Nadal in the end can play aggressive and still hit a safe shot. I think he has a good shot at the US open if he can stay closer to the baseline on the return of serve.
Arturo
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July 6th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
Yes, of course Berdych has to play in the zone, out of his mind, the best tennis of his career to beat Nadal. First time out in a GS final this is almost impossible. Only one I can remember is Safin at the US Open. But I disagree about Nadal being a counter puncher. I think of a C P as needing the other guys pace to create his shots. Nadal looks to dominate every exchange and has
developed his volley and serve to take advantage of any weakness in the opponent. He is aggressive and turns defense into offense better than anyone. He can be patient and wear you down with his grond game but overall he is way too aggressive to be in the counter puncher category like Murray.
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July 6th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
I agree with this analysis 100%. It is all about margin for error and positioning. Nadal hits so high over the net and far from the lines that he rarely makes an unforced error. Also, his very strong physique allows him to sort-of hug the court. Therefore his safe hitting and strong movement allows him to stay in the point during long rallies and eventually out hit his opponents.
Now, at the US Open, it is an entirely different matter. There the ball bounces are very consistent and so is the footing. Strong players with excellent technique like Federer and Berdich to name a few are able out hit Nadal whose looping shots are sitting ducks for those with very sound strokes. Having said that, you can never count a time tested warrior like Nadal out as he is able to adapt, overcome, and improvise better than anybody in the world today.
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July 6th, 2010 at 8:44 pm
One of the things I found interesting was how Rafa was saying he could move better later in the tournament because the grass around the baseline wore down. By the time the final came around he was playing in dirt again, HIS surface. I think the argument can be made that because the grass is so nice at the beginning of Wimbledon, that Rafa has a higher chance of losing early there then he does in the later matches simply because he is out of his element and he will be playing players who have nothing to lose and will go for the high risk shots like you were saying
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July 10th, 2010 at 7:24 pm
Rafa simply got him to play his game. I don’t think he wins the Open, though– I go with Murray!
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July 20th, 2010 at 9:37 am
Tomaz – Great site. Thanks for offering your advice to the public here.
Going back to read your previous posts on Nadal, I wonder if your opinion of him has changed. Do you think he deserves the No. 1 ranking at this point. I personally love seeing him play, and I think he’s added a more aggressive dimension to his game; I feel he’s moved beyond being a ‘pusher’ with the way he dominates his opponents and his improved net game.
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Tomaz Reply:
July 20th, 2010 at 9:46 am
Thanks, AM.
I think you have missed my point. I never claimed that he doesn’t deserve the #1 spot – if he is #1 then he deserves it.
I just don’t like his style of play.
I do see him as the best player in terms of mental toughness at the moment as he knows exactly when to go for the shot with courage and determination and when to play percentage tennis.
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July 20th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
I was loosely paraphrasing – I know what you meant. What I meant was that I was wondering if you’ve seen a shift in his style of play that has lead him to break away from the other Spaniards who have a long history of being clay court specialists (i.e., sticking with a point until the opponent breaks down – or pushers). Particularly in the last year or since he came back from injury and distractions in his personal life. His net game is an example – he’s become quite good at it lately.
I also know what you mean about his style of play and the #1 player. In the 80′s, I don’t know how I’d feel about seeing Wilander or Michael Chang become #1. However, I see Nadal as having a more dynamic style with more depth – he just happens to also have the ability to run down balls better than most people.
Or do you think he is just getting better at what he already did?
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Tomaz Reply:
July 20th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Yes, I have seen a big shift in his play. He has become much more aggressive and is now going for his shots much more. As soon as you give him a slightly easier ball, he is going to make you run. He used to just play it back and wait for the “perfect” opportunity to attack.
Whether that’s part of his training and a change of game plan or simply the consequence of higher confidence I cannot tell.
But Nadal currently plays tactically and mentally tennis 2 levels above everyone else. Becker, Sampras, Edberg, Courier and other legends used to play at such high levels, but in the last 5 or 6 years I have seen only Nadal and Federer do that constantly.
And we’ve seen Roger lose that edge since the AU Open 2010… Maybe he simply has too much of everything is not that hungry any more…
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