3 Reasons Why Djokovic Beat Federer In The Dubai 2011 ATP Final
Novak Djokovic has beaten Roger Federer for the second consecutive time and won his third Dubai ATP title.
Novak’s run of consecutive won matches is now 15 – including his wins at the Davis Cup final, Australian Open 2011 and now Dubai.
Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer for the 2011 Dubai Title
Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer for the 2011 Dubai Title / AFP PHOTO / KARIM SAHIB
I’ve analyzed the match and found some very interesting stats. They reveal exactly why Djokovic won so easily.
Here’s are 3 main reasons why Novak Djokovic won:
1. Better serving – Novak’s first serve percentage in the first set was 85% and he won 88% of points after the first serve. Roger’s stats were 61% and 64% respectively.
In reality, Djokovic served only 4 times in the first set (2 other games were breaks of serve) and he had 12 service winners. That basically means he was starting to play baseline game at 40:0 each game. (3 service winners per game!)
His serving percentage dropped in the second set but he still made 6 service winners compared to Roger’s 5.
2. Less unforced errors – Roger was in my opinion not feeling very safe in baseline exchanges with Djokovic. It could have been an unconscious doubt though…
That’s why Roger was going for much more on his groundstrokes and made many more unforced errors.
Novak made only 3! unforced errors in the first set while Roger made 12!
But the end of the second set was a total disaster for Roger – I’ve actually never seen him play so badly (perhaps only in the Roland Garros final against Nadal in 2008 when he lost the final set 6-0.)
From 3-2 in the second set Roger hasn’t won a game and in the next 4 games committed 14! unforced errors – of total 21 points played.
Meaning that 2/3 thirds of all points from 3-2 resulted in Roger’s unforced error. Novak Djokovic made only 2.
3. Better execution on game points – I noted what happened on each game point (that includes game points and break points) – whether the player forced the error with attacking play (clean winners included) or made an unforced error.
First set: There were 12 game points in total and Novak’s ratio was 6 / 1 and Roger’s ratio was 3 / 2.
6 / 1 ratio means that he won 6 points with attacking play and made 1 unforced error.
Second set: Novak’s ratio was 2 / 2 and Roger’s ratio was 3 / 5. Again, this shows that Roger had 5 game points on which he made an unforced error.
In summary, I was hoping to see a great tennis match but Roger was simply not at his level. Perhaps Djokovic has gone under his skin as in the past happened with Nadal.
I also think Roger will have to drill his backhand over and over again (which I am quite sure he is not doing now).
Djokovic played around 75% of shots to Roger’s backhand and simply waited 2-5 shots and Roger made a mistake – not even going for a big shot.
Novak Djokovic on the other hand was very impressive – his service motion has gotten smoother and it results in many more first serves in.
My prediction is that Novak Djokovic will end the 2011 as the #1 player in the world. Your thoughts are welcome as always!
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This entry was posted on Saturday, February 26th, 2011 at 1:25 pm and is filed under Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
4 Responses to “3 Reasons Why Djokovic Beat Federer In The Dubai 2011 ATP Final”
March 9th, 2011 at 3:14 am
I think Rogers’s coach should take him to very windy place to drill his backhand… and sometimes he is so stubborn…. thinking that backhand magically will start to work when actualy it is goning worse…
March 9th, 2011 at 3:22 am
and on one post match interview Roger replied that he doesn’t care about unforced errors….if his plan is working….sometimes is true i you win…. but on other hand how can you implement your game plan if you make 60 unforced errors per match….
March 9th, 2011 at 11:48 am
Watching footage from Roger’s matches in 2007 it is very clear that he is at least a step slower on the court now and that is completely expected of someone who has been on the tour and dominated for so long. Roger in my opinion is not losing because the game has changed or his style of tennis does not match the new generations physical / hard hitting style, a skill set like his (possesing every shot, strategy, efficiency and grace) is timeless and no current player has that, but executing it with consistency at age 30 is too much to ask for. What we can expect to see from Roger now is the occasional brilliant match followed by a few ordinary ones which in turn will make it look like the opponents are playing brilliant tennis.
Novak Djokovic Remains Unbeaten In 2011 | How To Play Better Tennis – Tips From A Professional Tennis Coach Says:
March 21st, 2011 at 11:31 am
[…] is remarkably similar to the end of the match in Dubai where Federer made 14 unforced errors in the last 21 points played in the last 4 […]