Novak Djokovic – Rafael Nadal Wimbledon 2011 Match Analysis
Novak Djokovic has set another milestone in his fantastic year of 2011 – he beat Rafael Nadal in the Wimbledon 2011 final and justified his new #1 ranking.
Novak Djokovic wins the Wimbledon 2011 (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images
Let’s see what happened in match and where Nole got the better of Rafa…
First set
Djokovic started his service games with extra special care when he was bouncing the ball before the serve. It seemed too deliberate too me – since that’s not his usual rhythm.
And when you ‘re not looking to find your usual rhythm, you’ll also have troubles finding the zone.
That’s not how Novak started and played the finals of the Australian Open. He was much more aggressive there and here my feeling was that he wanted to play the Wimbledon finals »right« and not do something wrong.
That of course doesn’t allow you to relax and the shots AND decisions don’t flow effortlessly…
Djokovic did hold his serve throuhgout the first site and but his first serve percentage of around 60% was not what he is capable of.
Nadal on the other hand served in the same rhythm as usual – did not take any extra time – and his first serve percentage in the first set was close to 90%!
But at 4:5 and 30:30 Nadal missed the first serve and made an unforced error with the forehand (into the net). He also missed the first serve at 30:40 and made another unforced error with the forehand to give the first set to Djokovic.
Tension as a result of either lack of confidence against Djokovic (lost all matches to Novak this year) or simply worrying too much caused Nadal to miss two first serves in row.
Consider this: since Nadal’s first serve percentage was 90%, that means he had only 10% chance of missing the first serve – looking at this only statistically.
Since he missed two in row, that’s only 1% chance (10% x 10%) based on his stats. Obviously, there’s 99% chance that he got tense and simply lost the set himself…
He also made two unforced errors which did not happen before on his service games. He either made 0 or 1 UE in a service game…
Second set
I felt that Djokovic relaxed after the first set as he played fantastic tennis in the first service game of Nadal to break him. Nadal again made two uncharacteristic backhand unforced errors in that game.
Novak found perfect feel and timing on his forehand in the middle of the second set as he made 5 forehand winners (two clean winner and three forcing winners) in just two games.
He broke Nadal again and served out for the 6-1 win in the second set.
One more interesting stat: Rafael made only 5 unforced errors in the second set (he played 4 games without an unforced error!) and yet he lost it 6-1.
That means that Novak made all the points with winning shots…
Third set
Djokovic had an obvious letdown after two sets to love lead as he made 2 unforced errors on his service game and made only 2 of 6 first serves.
He also made more return errors even when he was in a good position. Novak would have to dig deep again – it was too easy until now.
He would need to be careful as the same thing happened to Federer when he lost to Tsonga after a two set lead…
His poor form continued – he made 7 forehand unforced errors in 7 games – and Nadal was able to break him again.
Rafa on the other hand raised his level of play as he made only 1 unforced error and 8 winning shots from the baseline. He also made 2 service winners in every service game.
Fourth set
Novak suddenly found his timing on the return and played some great returns to force short replies from Nadal and was able to break him.
But Nadal kept hitting his backhands in the next game with fast pace and forced a few mistakes from Novak on the forehand side. Rafa then hit a lucky net cord on the break point and the players were back on serve.
At 3:4 Rafa started to show the nerves affecting him. He became tense in long rallies and eventually went for too much and the tension pulled the ball into the net.
He made 3 unforced errors and basically lost the game himself. Djokovic mentally and physically »forced«him into making mistakes – which is what Nadal typically does to others.
Rafa still had chances in the next game but again made 2 unforced errors and Novak finally won his first Wimbledon title and justified his #1 ranking.
What is Novak’s Edge Against Rafa
I shared my views before why I think Novak keeps winning against Rafa, but let me go a little deeper here – and keep in mind this is just my personal opinion…
When I look at the Nadal’s support camp, I see uncle Toni and his father Sebastian as two very dominating men.
They control Rafa and they are bitterly disappointed when he loses.
I hope someone can find the video of the reaction of Nadal’s father when Rafa missed one of his forehands today. The facial expression of was of disgust and anger.
Update: Thanks Marcel for sending me this video clip…
That is transferred to Rafa and he feels enormous pressure to please his father and uncle. Or in other words, he feels enormous pressure not to disappoint them.
This pressure eventually results in tension which results in unforced errors.
Of course, someone needs to be so good as to get Rafa to these points in the match where he will start to feel the pressure.
Novak does that and he also doesn’t show any weakness.
And Rafa is a type of player who thrives on his opponent’s mental weaknesses.
The more weaknesses he detects, the more he grows in confidence.
Novak doesn’t give that to him even when he is losing – and Rafa has nothing to feed on.
What really bothered Nadal today was that he broke down under pressure. And he knows it.
He was clearly beaten in the second set but he broke under pressure in the first set at 30:30 and 4-5 and he broke under pressure at 3-4 in the fourth.
He lost the match to the player who simply played really well for 3 sets and Rafa was not able to keep his composure in critical moments.
The sad thing in my opinion is that unless the relationship in his camp changes (which I am sure will not as those two dominating figures will keep towering above him) Rafa will be always vulnerable to pressure against a mentally strong player like Djokovic.
Luckily for Nadal, only Djokovic is so mentally strong now.
21 years ago when the top 10 was:
1. Edberg Stefan (SWE)
2. Becker, Boris (GER)
3. Lendl, Ivan (USA)
4. Agassi, Andre (USA)
5. Gomez, Andres (ECU)
6. Sampras, Pete (USA)
7. Muster Thomas (AUT)
8. Sanchez, Emilio (ESP)
9. Gilbert, Brad (USA)
10. Ivanisevic, Goran (CRO)
… we could say that you had 8 or 9 super mentally strong competitors in the top 10, these days you have maybe 3 or 4 of that level of mental toughness.
Novak Djokovic with the Wimbledon 2011 trophy / Photo by AP
So Rafa will continue to be at the top for quite some time but unless he is allowed to become the alpha male of his group – as Federer and Djokovic are – he will have troubles playing his best at key moments.
He can play safer though if he learns from this as his safe shots are still extremely difficult to handle and it’s very unlikely that someone is going to hit four winners in one key game to beat him.
In fact, Rafa used to play smart and safe tennis – I especially remember how smart he played tie-breakers – and he needs to keep playing like that in key moments to win against Novak.
But Kudos to Novak, the new #1 in the world.
Novak Djokovic had two dreams when he was a kid: to become #1 and to win Wimbledon.
He must be the happiest man in the world today.
- Related posts:
July 3rd, 2011 at 9:18 pm
I am carefull reader of Your site. Thanks to You (and couple of other guys in the net) I developed a better understanding for tennis as game.( I think that at least) My view on the 5 succeeding loses of Nadal is a little bit different. The backhand errors You describe are not “uncharacteristic” but actually forced.
Novak utilizes the same strategy as Rafa was using over and over again against the rest of the players. Djoko uses high bouncing topspin forehand Rafas backhand to neutralise rallys with Rafa’s advantage or to make Rafa replay with the shortet ball in a neutral rally. On the oposite wing he uses backhand exactly as You described that in NADAL Murray match at USO 2008. Furthermore. He sets his backhand down the line around 1 meter from the sideline.
All theses shots from Djoko are high percetage shots. By keeping them comming from one side of Nadal to the other Djoko reveals and exploits a weeker side of Nadal – the backhand. Furthermore he also finds and exploits the weekness with Nadals forehand – Nadal doesnt like to go far to reach for the forehand because of his extreme grip and the way of swinging the racket.
Once Nadal saw he cannot utilize his normal high procentage weapon ( forehand cc and then from the center forehand inside out or cc) he is feeling that he must do something special (this bears strong resemblence to Federer situation against Nadal) and as often You have describe if a player wants to do something special – he starts to make more mistakes.
It is very interesting that Nadal almost had been unable to play the inside out forehand in the match (actually in all five matches). This is no fluke. Novak succesfully provides shots which unable Nadal to hit that insideout forehand shot (especially the high topspin forehand cc by Djoko to Nadals backhand). If Nadal would be able to constantly hit a heavy flat shot in replay from his backhand wing, that cc forehand shot would not be neutralising shot for Djoko.
Furthermore Nadal does not posess a dangerous slice. As I saw it in Federer/Djoko match at FO 2011 Fed did uses that bakhandslice shot cc to Djokovic backhand wing to disrupt the rythm of Djoko to a great succes in crucial points.
The Djoko strategy is a pretty simple strategy based on:
1 high percentage shots
2 on more then one shots strategy – each and every time Rafa plays with a little less and less time and Djoko receives the better court positioning which makes for him even easier to fire high percentage winning or forcing shots
3. The one two shots strategy which fed is trying to aplly without very match succes is normally useles because of Nadal superior movement and very good defence – it only works if Federer plays with stats like in London ( totally inhumane)
So actally what bothers Nadal is that Djoko does not fear the long rallies and is not seeking an outright winner every time.
I wonder If that what I have written down has any merit in you opinion or am I simply homegrown expert without any hope.
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July 3rd, 2011 at 9:24 pm
Interesting how you looked at the Top10 from 21 years ago and compared them in mental toughness. I agree with you 100% on that…those guys on average were much tougher mentally!
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July 3rd, 2011 at 9:59 pm
I agree with Konrad below.
What you (Tomaz) said has merits, but I think the psychological weakness only applies when there is no physical weakness. Federer, for example, is mentally very strong I believe (he has lapses, but well, you can hardly play that kind of aggressive tennis without being strong mentally), but since he has weakness for Nadal to exploit only Federer is getting frustrated. In this sense I believe it has less to do with Nadal’s relation to his uncle and father but more to do with the lack of weakness in Djokovic’s game when he faces Nadal.
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July 3rd, 2011 at 11:15 pm
Great post, keep them coming, i didnt watch the match but i knew that djokovic was going to be the winner. He is as fast as nadal right know with more variety on his serve and his return.
I think djokovic feels so confident right now because of his physical condition (sorry my english is not very good) and the fact that he beated rafa 3 times this year is important.
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July 4th, 2011 at 1:47 am
I think you & the previous posts miss a critical factor. Nadal’s game is based on high-arcing topspin shots –that provide both (a) great net clearance and (b) little chance of sailing long. BUT — and this is crucial — they also provide his opponents a lot of time to chase them down. And heaven-help Rafa if these returns land short!
Actually, I think Rafa’s serve kept today’s match close.
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July 4th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
100% right – imagine looking up and seeing your father/coach reacting in that way…I have always liked the Novak box, for its positive vibes it gives out to its player- yes they celebrate on the big points, but no negative reactions ….I personally think that over the last few years I have not enjoyed watching Rafa as much, he seems too stereo typed…and lacking in a second game plan..but great post by you
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July 4th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
I believe the reason that Nadal continues to lose to Novak is that Nadal is playing the wrong patterns against Djoko. Why in the heck is Rafa hitting his FH to Novak’s FH? This allows Novak to hit his FH crosscourt and hurts Rafa by pulling him off the court. Also, Rafa stopped hitting his correct pattern of his heavy FH crosscourt to Novak’s BH. Rafa is very successfull with this pattern. Also, Rafa’s cc pattern of his BH to Novak’s FH is a losing proposition, because Novak can hurt Rafa with the down the line FH. Rafa needs to open up the court with his own down the line shots off the FH and BH. In addition, early on in the match, Rafa attacked the net and hit a beautiful drop volley! Novak had no response. Rafa is a very sound volleyer and should have tried this more.
Bottom line is Rafa is nearly unstoppable when he is the aggressor and playing offense. But when he plays Novak, Rafa tends to inevitably play way too much defense, not just physicaly but mentally he is in a defensive mind set. The few times that Rafa was attacking Novak in the match, Rafa typically won the point. I would also respectfully say that Rafa really needs to work on his return of serve on both wings.
Congratulations to Novak for an amazing final! He truly has earned it & his #1 ranking. Much respect!! It’s an awesome thing to see. I think he’s salivating already for the U.S. Open!!
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July 4th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
i don’t know guys. i mean, rafa did say, that there is nothing in his game which hurts djokovic. just seems like djoko is jus better than him now.
i think though, if Tomic was foccussed in the third set, he could have taken that one. him and djoko were neck and neck virtually. his slice and placement is too good.
BEWARE BERNARD TOMIC EVERYBODY!!!!!! even now he’s a top 10 player, even if his ranking doesn’t say it.
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July 4th, 2011 at 9:01 pm
Tomaz,
I usually find your analyses spot on but I am afraid I don’t get this one.
My question is: why is it that only this year Nadal has broken down mentally against Djokovic? He had no problem with him in the past. And he’s had the same team for years.
If his uncle and father are so dominating and Rafa feels the pressure to please them as a burden every time when he faces a stronger opponent, then why didn’t Federer have an edge over him? He beat him în 2 consecutive Wimbledon finals, why didn’t Rafa become stressed at the thought of playing Fed on grass? On the contrary, he kept pushing and won it in 2008 after a titanic struggle.
You say Nadal hasn’t got an Alpha male attitude, but what does an Alpha male attitude mean? You say Fed has got it, but, honestly, Fed is anything but an Alpha when he faces Nadal. I am confused…
My feeling is that the psychological demise of Nadal against Djokovic is simply based on his game not being on the same level with the Serb’s this year. Actually, i always thought Djokovic is the more complete player. A big part of Rafa’s strength has been the fact that he bullies his opponents into submission with his athleticism, his brutal style of tennis and his “in your face” celebrations, intimidating strut and oncourt presence.
But since Davis Cup, Djokovic said that “he lost his fear” and maybe he felt free to explore the full range of his game. And he found some things in his game that can hurt Nadal and Nadal doesn’t have answers right now. Not necessarily because he feels pressured by his team, but because there are no answers that his game can provide to Djokovic…
Somebody said that in tennis, it’s all about the match-ups. How your style of play matches your opponents. I mean, look at it: Djokovic beats Nadal, Nadal beats Fed, Fed beats Djokovic.
And if Nadal is looking for answers, he need not look further than the 2011 FO semifinal that Djokovic lost against Fed. But, again, I’m afraid Rafa cannot replicate Federer’s play. I guess it is all about the match-ups.
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Matt Reply:
July 5th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
It is difficult to see why the dominant father&uncle causes tension against Djoko and not Fed. However, as Tomaz says, against Fed he has a simple ‘get out’ shot – heavy topspin cc. It’s a shot he doesn’t have to think about either – no brainer – so easier to execute under intense pressure. He doesn’t have this option against Djoko and has to make a decision- this maybe stretches his resources too far. I don’t personally think uncle Toni is a big problem – he seems quite calm most of the time and speaks very well. From what I saw at Wimbledon, his father, Sebastian, however, does seem very domineering. I don’t think he usually watches Rafa (anybody got the stats??) so maybe his presence at the final was a factor. One pressure too many. I think Judy Murray may cause similar issues for Andy. We’re talking in fractions, but that’s the difference at the top level, in the big points, under the most pressure…
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Camelia Reply:
July 5th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
I remember seeing Rafa’s father at his matches quite often. And I remember seeing him at GS finals, when the pressure is already sky-high. Still, Rafa won. I don’t know…
But Judy Murray, now that’s interesting! I’ve never thought about it that way…
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July 5th, 2011 at 10:14 am
A few more thoughts…
I don’t think Djokovic plays and special strategy that would be incredible effective against Nadal. If he did, he would win sets 6-2. He doesn’t. (the only exception is the second set where he played totally in the zone)
This year’s matchups show this:
Indian Wells: 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
Miami: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6
Madrid: 7-5, 6-4
Rome: 6-4, 6-4
Wimbledon: 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3
I watched most of the matches and it was always a battle royale.
It is VERY VERY hard for Djokovic to beat Nadal and the reason why he manages to do that this year is because Nadal breaks down in key moments.
Here’s what Nadal said: ““I started the match without thinking [about those defeats]. But when you arrive to 5-4, these moments it probably affects a little bit. That’s what happened, and that’s why.”
You can read more here…
So there’s just a little mental lapse that creates that one poor game by Nadal and he loses his serve. That’s why most sets they played this year were won by Djokovic with one single break of serve.
And my thoughts on the alpha male thing – Nadal won 10 Grand Slams with his this approach – the pressure from the “bench” forces his to rather die than to let go of even one ball.
But this same pressure will keep destroying him on crucial points against someone who doesn’t feel that pressure.
Djokovic is calm now when he is in trouble because he is confident.
Nadal senses that Djokovic is not afraid of him or his big forehand. And that’s what Nadal has been building his whole game around.
Why doesn’t he have problems with Federer? Simple. He knows from the warm up onwards that Federer’s backhand is a weakness against that forehand – so it’s only a matter of time before he gets a short ball.
With Djokovic he actually needs to play many different shots and endure tough rallies to win a point.
Nadal will need to believe in himself and be allowed to miss sometimes without any criticism.
But in my opinion that will never happen – because he has now this critical personality ingrained in him and even if there’s no father or uncle, Nadal will put pressure on himself in the same way.
Again, he can get very very far with this approach and he might even become the player with most Grand Slams in the future. But he will mentally suffer a lot – while Djokovic will not…
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July 5th, 2011 at 1:21 pm
I think everyone is right. Djokovic is playing better. He has a more complete game. Rafa is feeling the pressure. He cannot see a way to win the match anymore. But Rafa said one thing that is real worth mentioning. He would like to wait for the right moment. The one thing that does seem odd is that no one would resort to serving and volleying to try and snap people out of their zone. If you are down 4-1 in the second set why not kick a few serves and come to the net. At least get your opponent to see something else. Even Fed doesn’t do this too much anymore.
I do want to add one more thing. Rafa has always won by playing a counterpuncher type of style. Djokovic is almost a mirror for him. They play the same style except that Djokovic is doing it better right now. Now suddenly Rafa has to play with greater risk. The question is whether he is brave enough to commit to attacking Djokovic like Fed attacks him.
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Camelia Reply:
July 5th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
“I do want to add one more thing. Rafa has always won by playing a counterpuncher type of style. Djokovic is almost a mirror for him. They play the same style except that Djokovic is doing it better right now. Now suddenly Rafa has to play with greater risk. The question is whether he is brave enough to commit to attacking Djokovic like Fed attacks him.”
Completely agree. Will be VERY interesting to see…
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July 7th, 2011 at 7:43 am
Update: added the video of the reaction of Nadal’s father…
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July 19th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
also to keep in mind that all these apparently ‘angry/dominating’ parents/uncles were in the picture very much during many other intense matches played by Rafa (for example the epic wimbledon when he won over federer) and Rafa seemed to handle their presence well all those times. Now that he lost to Nole, we are overanalyzing. Lets face it, Nole has a much better game than Rafa at this time and that’s why he is wining, not b/c uncles/parents etc. I do agree that demanding parents would drive me nuts if they were in the stands but thats besides the point.
I have always enjoyed your explanation about tennis but didn’t help but disagree on this one and therefore had to respond. Thanks.
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Tomaz Reply:
July 20th, 2011 at 8:35 am
Well, most of the times father was not present in Rafa’s matches. Second, being pushed from parents can get you VERY far as I mentioned before. Sometimes you get in the zone and forget that and sometimes you don’t.
Thirdly, I disagree that Djokovic has a much better game than Nadal. He played only one set much better than Nadal and got the same back the next set. So here they are even.
1st and 4th set of the final were decided in one Nadal’s service game where he made 2 unforced errors (happend in both sets) – in my opinion due to pressure. The rest of the match he was equal.
He basically lost the final because of 4 unforced errors he made in key moments of the match.
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